Powered byWebtrack Logo


The pragmatic fantasy

Today, the Egyptian regime faces its gravest threat since Anwar Sadat’s assassination 30 years ago. As protesters take to the street for the third day in a row demanding the overthrow of 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak, it is worth considering the possible alternatives to his regime.

On Thursday afternoon, presidential hopeful Mohamed El Baradei, the former head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, returned to Egypt from Vienna to participate in anti-regime demonstrations.As IAEA head, Elbaradei shielded Iran’s nuclear weapons program from the Security Council.

He repeatedly ignored evidence indicating that Iran’s nuclear program was a military program rather than a civilian energy program. When the evidence became too glaring to ignore, Elbaradei continued to lobby against significant UN Security Council sanctions or other actions against Iran and obscenely equated Israel’s purported nuclear program to Iran’s.

His actions won him the support of the Iranian regime which he continues to defend. Just last week he dismissed the threat of a nuclear armed Iran, telling the Austrian News Agency, “There’s a lot of hype in this debate,” and asserting that the discredited 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate that claimed Iran abandoned its nuclear weapons program in 2003 remains accurate.

Elbaradei’s support for the Iranian ayatollahs is matched by his support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

This group, which forms the largest and best-organized opposition movement to the Mubarak regime, is the progenitor of Hamas and al-Qaida. It seeks Egypt’s transformation into an Islamic regime that will stand at the forefront of the global jihad. In recent years, the Muslim Brotherhood has been increasingly drawn into the Iranian nexus along with Hamas. Muslim Brotherhood attorneys represented Hizbullah terrorists arrested in Egypt in 2009 for plotting to conduct spectacular attacks aimed at destroying the regime.

Elbaradei has been a strong champion of the Muslim Brotherhood. Just this week he gave an interview to Der Spiegel defending the jihadist movement. As he put it, “We should stop demonizing the Muslim Brotherhood. ...[T]hey have not committed any acts of violence in five decades. They too want change. If we want democracy and freedom, we have to include them instead of marginalizing them.”

The Muslim Brotherhood for its part has backed Elbaradei’s political aspirations. On Thursday, it announced it would demonstrate at ElBaradei’s side the next day.

Then there is the Kifaya movement. The group sprang onto the international radar screen in 2004 when it demanded open presidential elections and called on Mubarak not to run for a fifth term. As a group of intellectuals claiming to support liberal, democratic norms, Kifaya has been upheld as a model of what the future of Egypt could look like if liberal forces are given the freedom to lead.

But Kifaya’s roots and basic ideology are not liberal. They are anti-Semitic and anti-American.

Kifaya was formed as a protest movement against Israel with the start of the Palestinian terror war in 2000. It gained force in March 2003 when it organized massive protests against the US-led invasion of Iraq. In 2006, its campaign to get a million Egyptians to sign a petition demanding the abrogation of the peace treaty with Israel received international attention.

Many knowledgeable Egypt-watchers argued this week that the protesters have no chance of bringing down the Mubarak regime. Unlike this month’s overthrow of Tunisia’s despot Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, they say there is little chance that the Egyptian military will abandon Mubarak.

But the same observers are quick to note that whoever Mubarak selects to succeed him will not be the beneficiary of such strong support from Egypt’s security state. And as the plight of Egypt’s overwhelmingly impoverished citizenry becomes ever more acute, the regime will become increasingly unstable. Indeed, its overthrow is as close to a certainty as you can get in international affairs.

And as we now see, all of its possible secular and Islamist successors either reject outright Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel or will owe their political power to the support of those who reject the peace with the Jewish state. So whether the Egyptian regime falls next week or next year or five years from now, the peace treaty is doomed.

SINCE THE start of Israel’s peace process with Egypt in 1977, supporters of peace with the Arabs have always fallen into two groups: the idealists and the pragmatists.

Led by Shimon Peres, the idealists have argued that the reason the Arabs refuse to accept Israel is that Israel took “their” land in the 1967 Six Day War. Never mind that the war was a consequence of Arab aggression or that it was simply a continuation of the Arab bid to destroy the Jewish state which officially began with Israel’s formal establishment in 1948. As the idealists see things, if Israel just gives up all the land it won in that war, the Arabs will be appeased and accept Israel as a friend and natural member of the Middle East’s family of nations.

Peres was so enamored with this view that he authored The New Middle East and promised that once all the land was given away, Israel would join the Arab League.

Given the absurdity of their claims, the idealists were never able to garner mass support for their positions. If it had just been up to them, Israel would never have gotten on the peace train. But lucky for the idealists, they have been able to rely on the unwavering support of the unromantic pragmatists to implement their program.

Unlike the starry-eyed idealists, the so-called pragmatists have no delusions that the Arabs are motivated by anything other than hatred for Israel, or that their hatred is likely to end in the foreseeable future. But still, they argue, Israel needs to surrender.

It is the “Arab Street’s” overwhelming animosity towards Israel that causes the pragmatists to argue that Israel’s best play is to cut deals with Arab dictators who rule with an iron fist. Since Israel and the Arab despots share a fear of the Arab masses, the pragmatists claim that Israel should give up all the land it took control over as a payoff to the regimes, who in exchange will sign peace treaties with it.

This was the logic that brought Israel to surrender the strategically priceless Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in exchange for the Camp David accord that will not survive Mubarak.

And of course, giving up Sinai wasn’t the only sacrifice Israel made for that nearly defunct document. Israel also gave up its regional monopoly on US military platforms. Israel agreed that in exchange for signing the deal, the US would begin providing massive military aid to Egypt. Indeed, it agreed to link US aid to Israel with US aid to Egypt.

Owing to that US aid, the Egyptian military today makes the military Israel barely defeated in 1973 look like a gang of cavemen. Egypt has nearly 300 F-16s. Its main battle tank is the M1A1 which it produces in Egypt. Its navy is the largest in the region. Its army is twice the size of the IDF. Its air defense force constitutes a massive threat to the IAF. And of course, the ballistic missiles and chemical weapons it has purchased from the likes of North Korea and China give it a significant stand-off massdestruction capability.

Despite its strength, due to the depth of popular Arab hatred of Israel and Jews, the Egyptian regime was weakened by its peace treaty.

Partially in a bid to placate its opponents and partially in a bid to check Israeli power, Egypt has been the undisputed leader of the political war against Israel raging at international arenas throughout the world. So, too, Mubarak has permitted and even encouraged massive anti- Semitism throughout Egyptian society.

With this balance sheet at the end of the “era of peace” between Israel and Egypt, it is far from clear that Israel was right to sign the deal in the first place. In light of the relative longevity of the regime it probably made sense to have made some deal with Egypt. But it is clear that the price Israel paid was outrageously inflated and unwise.

IN CONTRAST to the Egyptian regime, as the popular outcry following Al-Jazeera’s publication of the Palestinian negotiations documents this week shows, the Fatah-run Palestinian Authority is as weak as can be. Yitzhak Rabin, the godfather of the pragmatist camp, famously argued that Yasser Arafat and Fatah would handle the Israel-hating Palestinian Street, “without the Supreme Court and B’Tselem.”

That is, he argued that it made sense to surrender massive amounts of strategically critical land to a terrorist organization because Arafat and his associates would repress their people with an iron fist, unfettered by the rule of law and Palestinian human rights organizations.

And yet, the fact of the matter is that Arafat commanded the terror war against Israel that began in 2000 and transformed Palestinian society into a jihadist society that popularly elected Hamas to lead it.

The leaked Palestinian documents don’t tell us much we didn’t already know about the nature of negotiations between Israel and Fatah. The Palestinians demanded that the baseline of talks assume that all the disputed territories actually belong to them. And for no particular reason, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Olmert agreed to these historically unjustified terms of reference.

While this was well known, in publishing the documents, Al- Jazeera has still made two important contributions to the public debate.

First, the PA’s panicked reaction to the documents exposes the ridiculousness of the notion that the likes of Mahmoud Abbas, Saeb Erekat and Salam Fayyad are viable partners for peace.

Not only do they lack the power to maintain a peace deal with Israel. They lack to power to sign a peace deal with Israel. All they can do is talk – far away from the cameras – about hypothetical, marginal concessions in a peace that will never, ever be achieved. The notion that Israel should pay any price for a deal with these nobodies is completely ridiculous.

The Al-Jazeera papers also expose Livni’s foolishness.

Just as she failed to recognize the inherent weakness of the Lebanese state when she championed UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which called for the Hizbullah-dominated Lebanese army to deploy to the border with Israel at the end of the 2006 war, so Livni failed to understand the significance of the inherent weakness of Fatah as she negotiated away Gush Etzion and Har Homa.

And she didn’t need Al-Jazeera’s campaign against the PA to understand that she was speaking to people who represent no one. That basic fact was already proven with Hamas’s victory in the 2006 elections.

THE TRUTHS exposed by the convulsive events of the past month make it abundantly clear that Israel lives in a horrible neighborhood. It is a neighborhood where popular democracy means war against Israel.

In this neck of the woods, it is not pragmatic to surrender. It is crazy.

# reads: 446

Original piece is

Printable version

Tell us what you think

Some leaders best approximate the optimal use of the various elements of the Sefirot. Ecclesiastes is clear that there is a time and a place for everything under the sun. It is possible to turn a serial killer into a non-abusive doting grandfather. Very difficult but possible. Sometimes one must be kind. Sometimes one must be severe. Sometimes one must just sit back and wait. I think the most powerful political tool in the universe is truth. The way to build trust with others is via truth telling. There is objective truth in the universe. Either something happened or it didn"t. I think more people may be prepared to face the truth at the moment. Truth is pouring into the zeitgeist in powerful, refreshing, turbulent waves. The momentum now is unstoppable.

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-09 02:00:01 GMT

To Brian_007, I am used to swimming in deep water. I love the ocean. Why just a week ago I swam out more than one hundred metres off the Portsea back beach past the breakers. I have learnt to not fear the darkness below. I know that G-d has a plan in mind for humankind. World Peace 2050 was established in April 2000. the better side of humanity in a nation must be given a chance. A more powerful person can often influence the course of another just by how they regard them. Do not underestimate the power of love as a political tool. Erich Fromm defined love as: Care; Respect; Knowledge and Responsibility. So taking an interest in another culture is vital to gaining understanding. If we only concentrate on the dark side of another we are prone to creating an unhealthy dynamic that gets reinforced over time. Of course putting on rose coloured glasses can be dangerous if we ignore the threats in our midst. We will see how things play out. I know what is possible in the Middle East and World at the moment. I have spent a lifetime investigation what the true potential of humankind is. The universe is stable, ordered, benevolent and expansive even if the minds of many bear witness to the opposite. Violence is not innate. All behaviour is a result of mindset and setting. G-d wants the Temple Mount, Jerusalem and the Holy Land to be a platform that reflects this paradigm. The Jews and all of humankind will benefit as a result. Egypt as one of the neighbours is part of the divine mix. We should take an interest in the welfare of our neighbours. One’s arc of concern should extend further than the face we see in the mirror first thing in the morning.

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-08 23:32:06 GMT

Adam, My guess is that you, a baal teshuva, are emersed in either catch up, or deep waters...personal, I try to avoid divining where under water rivers flow, and G-d"s plans. Ity"s all beyond me. And these generalizations about how "democracy ensures everyone is equal, so no one can give orders or criticise..." is utter nonsense. The greatest strength, is the active criticism that fires change and progress within a democracy. Nor do I really understand the relevance of your insert. I"m officially out of this dialog after my next statement: I suggest leaving G-d"s plans to G-d. It"s fun to speculate and compete in terms of our erudtion and adherence levels, but on the ground, we are facing historic developments. The Muslim Brotherhood is now very much at the table in Eqypt, and the banned Islamic Party in Tunisia is very much at the forefront. The West is now watching a sociopolitical development very similar to what occurred in Iran. And, while we can criticise the West"s apathy to the dictatorial structures of many Arabic states, we now look at the popular consequences. Unfortunately, I do not believe those forces will elect to consitutionalize freedoms of speech, the press, assembly and womens suffrage and open partication in the political process. I think they will yield to the dominance of dogma, clerics, and strongmen in the form of islamists, who will represent a further polarization of the Middle East conflict and the ideological opposition to Wester values, which are all based on the inherent freedom of the individual. It would be a great folly to assume that Hashem will right this wrong, if we ourselves are not willing to actively participate in the process, defending and taking responsibility for ourselves.

Posted by Brian_007 on 2011-02-08 09:32:17 GMT

To Brian, Where oh where have I suggested apathy as an optimal course of action ? What I am saying is that G-d has a plan and he will line up the pieces on the divine chess board to create a certain reality. The boredom excuse is a defence mechanism I have heard from many over the years when they hit a brick wall of too difficult information for them to absorb. Your comment about the timing of the Messianic revealtion and the correct order of the Redemption is accurate except when it actually applies to the man designated as Moshiach. Some are more ahead of the curve than others. Some Jews like voters in a democracy can suffer from the same problem. There is a glaring fault with the dominant government system in the West. Democracy ensures everyone is equal, so no one can give orders or criticise. A decent command structure breaks down. Many people have become capricious, individualistic and self-centred. They are happy to leave the heavy spiritual lifting up to others. Thus a monarchy is required. Divinely mandated command structure : G-d - Moshiach - Sanhedrin etc. Check your watch. The divine clock is ticking...

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-08 03:45:16 GMT

Adam, you are becoming a bit tedious. To note: Jacov, before meeting his brother Eisav and his army, didn"t just pray. He didn"t rely on a miracle or protection from Hashem. He wrestled the entire night with the Eisav angel emmissary, and he prepared himself and his family for the worst. He prepared his people to defend themselves against what could have been a violent catastrophy. Rashi explains why. Stop preaching excuses and rationalization of inaction, and a silly notion that G-d alone will defend us. He has hidden his face from us due our our mis-actions. That will not change this afternoon, in all probability. It"s up to us, and our own preparation in our own defense. Only then can Articles of Faith, according to any interpretation be of relevance, especially given tat the coming of Mosiach is beyong the perview and timetable of any of us, and it"s true, the Articles of Faith are a package deal!

Posted by Brian_007 on 2011-02-07 08:44:15 GMT

To Ymr, I studied the Thirteen Articles of Faith in depth in 2002 and 2003. I am more aware of their meaning than nearly anyone on the Planet. Regarding Moshiach...G-d is the superset of all creation. As Maimonides explains in "Guide for the Perplexed" prophetic insight is given to certain people throughout history. The revelation of Moshiach as enunciated by the "Twelfth Article of Faith" unfolds over time. For the person anointed as the righteous redeemer/prince of peace/wise counsellor the process is interesting. He will have inklings of his true purpose all throughout his life, but the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle will become clearer at certain specific times. The revelations will be intensely personal and private between G-d and himself. This will lead to feelings of surprise, wonder, awe, confusion, fear, anger, annoyance, lethargy, inspiration, invigoration and acceptance. He will learn how to orientate and position himself so as to best maximise his role and function in the service of the ultimate mission. He will be mis-interpreted by many people and will attract real hatred, envy, jealousy and vitriol. He will be very close to G-d. His power and influence will grow over time. G-d will assist him in his mission. Hope this is of interest to you. Shalom ! P.S. The following has been sent to many people all around the world over the last seven years. MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION Do you believe "Moshiach" is... (a) A tasty Polish stew best served in the depths of winter. (b) An irrelevant, archaic concept with no relevance to today"s world. (c) A metaphor for an age of world peace and does not imply an actual person. (d) Alive and breathing right now on Planet Earth and is doing his work. (e) Has already lived and will return one day. (f) Not born yet and is not physically present on earth yet. (g) Best represented by the collective Jewish people and/or the State of Israel.

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-07 08:33:32 GMT

To Brian and YMR, If you can"t see the relevance of the points I am raising it is not my problem. I am bored of people who think they know everything and are not prepared to listen and learn. I accept what I don’t know. All throughout my life I have sought information from many sources. You cannot solve a Rubik’s Cube without looking at all the sides of a problem. However if I am 100% confident on certain points and the need arises I intervene. Some more issues for you... I am not surprised that so many people are not “picking” the zeitgeist at the moment. Confusion often precedes understanding. The prophecies are crystal clear that at some point over time all people will turn to the one G-d and the petty delineations between the sects will be erased. The prophets glimpsed pieces of the divine jigsaw puzzle. There is one Mitzvot in the Tanach that applies to all time and space. The prohibition of the sexual abuse of a child can be the basis for constructing an entire political philosophy and worldview. i.e. A child becomes an adult. An adult becomes a partnership. A partnership becomes a family. A family becomes a community. A community becomes a nation. A nation becomes a civilization. Peaceworld or Traumaworld ? The choice is ours. Perhaps the presence of a truly sovereign person is required in the Holy City right now to oversee and facilitate deliberations. I repeat the question I posed earlier...Do you believe in the Twelfth Article of Faith ? Simple answer please. No equivocation.

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-07 03:07:40 GMT

I feel the point made by Hector is quite relevant. "Islam" means, sugjugation. Almost inherent to the codex is domination, explaning why we see strong, dogmatic clerics having such popularity, and where, in almost every Islamic state, regimes exist which if not openly dictatorial, are antithetical to democratic infrastructures. The will of the people is seen as troublesome and dangerous. It"s neither desired nor granted. The will of the God is core, and he requires male domination, reprssion, murderous martyrdom, and apparently only communicates through dead profets and living clerics. Political, religious and social domination then, from a variety of strongmen, is the means by which the vast majority of Muslims are governed. Even in this democratic upheavel, a vote towards what will most probably an Islamist regime(s) will be the result. It"s frighteningly similar to the means by which Urban II sent 30.000 brutish knights slicing through everything on their way to Jeruselem in the Crusades, a thousand years ago.

Posted by Brian_0007 on 2011-02-06 11:04:04 GMT

Gentlemen, our brains handle some 6000 actions and pieces of information every second. In my own congitive state, I can overlook the salt shaker sitting directly in front of me. So, what do I know? Very little. Even less about Hashems plans, favor, or withholding of same. But, I do know these are dangerous times, regardless of where we attribute basic causality. To not accept it, plan and defend against worse-possible-scenarios and recognize that what we may be seeing could the the launch of that uniting catalyst of orthodox, virulent, radical islamism in the context of democratic opheaval, would be a serious mistake.

Posted by Brian_007 on 2011-02-04 08:19:16 GMT

To Ronit, Do you believe in the Twelfth Article of Faith ? Simple answer please. No equivocation. It is now time for very clear communication to prevail. There is enough confusion on the Planet. The universe is stable, ordered, benevolent and expansive even if the minds of many bear witness to the opposite.

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-04 00:36:10 GMT

Only one point of difference between us Brian. I believe that Hashem, through those gritty Sabras, and traumatised European Jews created the State of Israel...eretz Yisrael has always been there...and the creation of the modern State...against all odds...and with the blood, sweat and tears of the Jewish still a miraculous event.

Posted by Ronit on 2011-02-04 00:15:19 GMT

Obama"s Commitment to the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty ? Politics is the art of the possible. Surveying the landscape what is before us ? Great chaos, flux, fear and change all throughout the Middle East. The threat of a downward spiralling vortex, almost like a land subsidence or spiritual sinkhole. No real leader present in Egypt. The other national leaders nervous but hanging on, treading water and managing to mitigate the anger by holding snap elections etc. Temporarily distracting the masses. Plugging the dyke. How about a meeting in Jerusalem with various representatives from Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Egypt with other nations present ? A peace treaty could be negotiated. Various GDP"s in the region...Israel US$292.7 billion; Jordan $31.01 B; Syria $96.53 B; Lebanon $53.81 B; Gaza $4 B; Saudi Arabia $600.4 B; Egypt $452.5 Billion. The total GDP of these eight areas is approx. $1.5 Trillion. This can increase by at least 4% per annum over the coming years if trust and co-operation increases. The vacuum needs to be filled. Ganeden needs an HQ. A good CEO is required. How many Jews actually believe in the Twelfth Article of Faith ? It doesn"t really matter. As a wise sage once said "It doesn"t matter what you think we will all know the truth and what is correct in the end." G-d has a plan. He will not be denied...

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-03 23:58:58 GMT

Of course one"s assumptions predicate conclusions. Cases are built on various assumptions. The platitude of "believing and trusting" is well and good, when the evidence that leads to trust is apparent. ‘Eretz Yisroel’ is a nation Hashem alone will create. The State of Israel, however, was made by homeless, traumatized Europeans and gritty Sabra Jews. The realities on the ground are as described by Ronit below: An overwhelming number of Arabs are politically repressed, religiously dogmatized, poor, and illiterate. They are the fodder for clerics, demagogues and local strongmen - the Islamic Mafia - the Muslim Brotherhood. Note: 50% of the population under 30 want to emigrate, while a violent Shiite movement is gathering force. I fully agree that Egyptians, like the population of Gaza, want jobs, to do the best for their kids and have some fun and freedom in their lives. Yet, when people are subjugated to radicalized doctrines which are projected as the will of G-d, sending throngs of enraged, disenfranchised people on a mission of hatred and conquest, you get the same sort of dynamic that enabled the Crusades to occur. Millions died and the ripples can still be felt. Now, we are at the precipice of a new and very dangerous historic development. To not see it as such, while banking naively on "Man"s good will toward Man," and that Hashem will suddenly step in and part the sea of indoctrinated Arabs, would be a absurd mistake of historic proportions. Hashem’s plans stretch over millennia. Our children’s lives stretch over decades. I believe our responsibility is to protect ourselves, and them.

Posted by Brian_007 on 2011-02-03 12:14:17 GMT

How we perceive a situation always determines how we react to it. That"s a given. I don"t know if most Egyptians are decent people or not. I do know they have been fed a diet of anti semitic propaganda for many years...decent people though they may be. I do know that a 20-part serial was broadcast which replicated the blood libel story against the Jews...most blatantly. I also know that 45% of women and 35% of the population are illiterate, many more a poverty stricken. Are they thus ripe for extremism. Yes. So how does it help me to know that most Egyptians are decent if that is somehow relevant. Were most Germans prior to the Holocaust....decent people also?

Posted by Ronit on 2011-02-03 04:48:23 GMT

Adam, Let"s artculate the underlying point you are making: If we all believe that the best will occur, it will, and if unfortunately we all believe the worst will occur, it will. This is an extremely empowering point of view, which more people ought to heed.

Posted on 2011-02-03 01:46:16 GMT

Did you know that Hamas representatives on a trust building mission involving talks about Gilad Shalit were on their way to Damascus on Monday when they were paradoxically stopped at the border with Egypt due to the ensuing chaos ? The Israelis et al. Are doing an enormous amount of good work behind the scenes to obey a certain paradigm. Pigeonholing all the people in a country is foolhardy. The vast majority of Egyptians are decent people who want a good future. I do not believe they want war with Israel or any of their neighbours at this time. How we perceive a situation can determine how we react to it. Beware of self-fulfilling prophecies.

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-03 01:32:34 GMT

Adam, the Muslim brotherhood has already said explicitly that they would support Hamas"s struggle against Israel, and that they don"t recognise Israel as a state. So if I TRUST the muslim brotherhood as you recommend, as a Zionist I have a lot to worry about. Conversely, if I force myself to "believe" that they are fair-minded and seek peace, then I would have to conclude that the brotherhood is deceptive.

Posted on 2011-02-03 00:11:27 GMT

Israel National News - Netanyahu to World: Make Sure Egypt Doesn"t Abandon Peace The Egyptian protestors may not have the patience to wait for President Mubarak to resign in September. Things have been allowed to slide for too long and the current intransigence of the government may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Too mitigate the violence a government of national unity is required. The people must start to feel engaged in the process of government. I am sure the vast majority of Egyptians are fair minded and seek peace and good relations with all nations, including Israel. The Western leaders including Bibi must attempt to trust the people of Egypt. Managing affairs from on high is dangerous when the people resent the ivory tower. A more interconnected, dynamic, grounded Middle East is required. An H.Q. is required for this paradigm is required. The relationship between the Holy Land and the Land of the Pharaohs is crucial to the mix. Some high level trust building meetings between all the nations in the region should be held in Jerusalem. The people of the Middle East nations will accept fair management of their affairs. The Arabs are amenable to reason. A divinely mandated overseer and facilitator for this process is required. Guess what boys and girls ? This is in fact the prophesied solution. Keep denying G-d and see what unfolds. The next 102 days leading up to May 16th are going to be momentous. Let’s see how good all the various “leaders” are in the coming days...

Posted by Adam Neira on 2011-02-02 23:40:23 GMT

Unfortunately the violent strategies of the radicalized islamists is making solid gains and has proven to force Western democracies into an extremely expensive and human resource demanding defensiveness. This has provided poor, uneducated and repressed Arabs with a new sense of identity, not wholly unlike that which transformed and mobilized Germans in the 1930"s. We saw Hamas win electoral support, only to become an terrifying, repressive, and iron fisted islamist regime that Gaza can is unable to vote out of office or remove. This wave of Arabic populism ignore the nightmare of what actually occurs when islamist regimes become powerful. It"s a pubescent phase in the Arabic awakening, and like teenagers, they are violently reactive, unpredictable, and often easily misdirected.

Posted by Brian_007 on 2011-02-02 09:26:45 GMT

In a country of 80million people it shouldn"t be difficult to get 1 million antigovernment people to "riot", espifthe majority are uneducated and have noyhing to loose. They dont realise that they personally have nothing to gain. So why should Mubaack cave in. he still has the majoity not rioting, So if Mrs Clinton and all those "clever"western leaders, would keep shtum, and the army and police showed some muscle, it would all pass over. What happened to the red rioters in Bangkok ? Thailand still has the same government !

Posted by Ib on 2011-02-02 09:20:31 GMT

not maybe, absolutely the vast majority want islamic government. You wrote: Maybe they think that Mubarak is too closely aligned with America, too secular. It's a possibility! It happened with Iran decades ago.

Posted on 2011-02-02 00:18:44 GMT

What"s wrong with this guy or that guy is less the point than the dynamics of these upheavals. They play out in what an islamist could easily dramatize as an "Islamic historical imperitive." Like in Tunesia, where the exiled islamist Rachid GhannouchiImam returned to the cheers and jubilation of throngs of islamists (and muslims afraid of standing against the ideological winds of radicalism), Eyptian Mohamed El Baradei is but one of many who return to Eqypt, in an attempt to harvest islamist populist support, in a bid to power. The notion of uniting Hamas, Hizbolla, and a Shi’ite friendly Iran, in a broad coalition that further isolates Israel (and the US/UK interests) in the Middle East, is the very possible outcome of developments in Northern Africa. Unlike Tunisia, Eqypt is the largest and most influencial of Arabic states, and in the event that a co-ordinated islamist populism, backed by the Muslim Brotherhood’s reach into Eyptian political institutions, a domino effect could ripple through the Middle East that would finally unite and co-ordinate the radical forces which spread from Algeria to the Sudan, through Yemen, Iran, Pakistan and Afganistan. This is clearly one of the most dangerous moments we have been facing, as Iranian nuclear capabilities join the momentum of islamist forces, in gaining political control of hundreds of millions of Arabs. It is, in fact, a possible precursor of the "worse possible" scenario.

Posted by Brian_007 on 2011-01-31 17:05:50 GMT

An australian perspective on

Posted on 2011-01-31 12:37:49 GMT

YMR, do you mean people are protesting on account of Mubaraks unpopularity?

Posted by Ralph on 2011-01-31 12:31:30 GMT

Will the US continue to pour its billions into Egypt"s coffers now?

Posted by Ronit on 2011-01-31 00:36:36 GMT