Arab spring goes wintery

As the uprisings began in the Middle East and North Africa, there were speculations that the region was going through a transformation, paving the way for democracy. The West, after a long period of thinking and analyses, decided to back away from supporting some dictators and to back the people's demand for freedom and democracy.

Those analysts who have a good familiarity with the structure of Middle Eastern and North African societies and their people understand that democracy is a big ask, at least at this stage. The change in political structure does not necessarily bring democracy and the freedom people desire. There was such an illusion during the Iranian Revolution of 1979. The Shah's dictatorship gave way to a more repressive theocratic regime.

Democracy cannot simply be imported as a commodity and implanted; it is a historical and cultural process that is lacking in these societies. It is too early to predict what is going to happen but all signs point to the fact that the democracy we know of in the West is not going to be the dominant political system for the region.

 President Ben Ali of Tunisia was the first casualty of this uprising, but after his departure, political reforms, if any, have been at a tortuously slow pace. In mid-July, not long after Ben Ali's departure, there were violent clashes between the security forces and protesters who were frustrated with political reforms there.

In Egypt there were jubilations when President Hosni Mubarak was toppled. But elections scheduled for this month have already been delayed to November and the army has announced that it will not allow international monitors to observe the polls. Many people disenchanted with the slow process of trials of former leaders – and proposed reforms — are going back to the streets again to register their frustrations. In fact, there have been claims that Egypt is now being ruled by the "Council of Mubaraks".

In Yemen the crisis is continuing without any clear winner. In Bahrain the picture does not seem to be optimistic either. The protesters are being suppressed with the blessing and direct involvement of Saudi Arabia while the international community has not shown any strong reaction.

In Syria, the regime of Bashar al-Assad has shot and tortured protesters. Despite strong international condemnation, the West is not prepared to intervene militarily as factors against intervention are more prevalent. Firstly, there is a strong objection by China and Russia. Secondly, any intervention could attract a reaction from Iran, which is a close ally of al-Assad. Thirdly, the West does not want to be seen to be directly involved in the internal affairs of another Arab country, setting another precedence that risks putting Western countries in a difficult position if a similar uprising occurs in Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states. Fourthly, a weak Assad-led regime in Syria is of a less threat to Israel than an unknown enemy, given that the Muslim Brotherhood has had a strong lead in the uprisings in Syria.

On the other hand, in Libya president Muammar Gaddafi has had a long history of enmity towards the West so it was a good opportunity for intervention to depose him. It would be interesting to see how the West would react to any demands for freedom and democracy from the people in Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states.

The question is, assuming all the regimes in the region are changed, would they be friendly to the West, particularly the US? So far, the trend shows that the West would be disappointed if it has such an expectation.

The Arab world has experienced identity crises for several decades. The Arab nationalism — and socialism has failed them. Secular governments have not proved any better. The more likely scenario would be the expansion and increase in influence of the Islamic movements that are considered by the local populations to be less corrupt and more transparent than their secular counterparts. All signs indicate that religious revivalism is taking place in the Islamic world, especially in the Arab world.

There is a sense of nostalgia among many Muslim Arabs, that Islam could revive its former glory — Islamic civilisation in those "golden days" when Islam ruled a large part of the world is still a point of reference for many Arabs. This week, the head of the National Transitional Council in Libya warned against secularism and declared that Sharia (Islamic law) will be the main sources of legislation.

A survey conducted by the PEW Research Centre in May, shows that 95 per cent of people in Jordan, 89 per cent in Egypt, 66 per cent in the Palestinian Territories and 56 per cent in Lebanon believe that laws should strictly follow the teaching of the Koran or follow the values and principles of Islam.

The same research shows that the Arab spring has not led to an improvement in America's image in the region. Indeed, in Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan, views have grown more negative than they were one year ago.

More so, would be these views towards Israel. The storming of the Israeli embassy in Cairo last week and the tension between the pro-Islamic governing party in Turkey and the government of Israel could be precursors of what is to come.

Finally, in the Arab countries, what unites various parties with sometimes antagonistic interests are the current dictators. In a post Arab Middle East and North African dictatorship — with so many tribal, secular, Islamic and sectarian factions — the possibility of a civil war cannot be ruled out.

Indeed, considering the current situations in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and even Tunisia and Egypt, the "Arab spring" seems to be rather an "Arab autumn" with a cold winter to follow.