Swan song on boats

The numbers are extraordinary. The failure is breathtaking - a failure in every possible way, of policy, morality, practicality, security, sovereignty, fairness and budgeting.

Sometimes failure descends into farce, as it did when Wayne Swan, in his capacity as acting Prime Minister, answered a question in Parliament at 2.40pm on Tuesday, May 22. Here was the exchange:

Scott Morrison (the opposition spokesman on immigration): ''My question is to the acting Prime Minister … [New Zealand] recently introduced strong measures to deter people smuggling … that included a form of temporary protection visa … Why hasn't the reality of 18,000 people arriving on 314 illegal boats caused the government to reintroduce the Coalition's proven border protection policies, including temporary protection visas?''

Wayne Swan: ''Because the Coalition's policy was a complete failure. This so-called 'solution' was a complete failure.''

There was a heartbeat of silence in the chamber, a momentary pause on the crowded opposition benches, as these words sank in. Then the magnitude of Swan's absurd gall prompted a deafening gale of laughter and cat-calling. Hansard blandly records the uproar as: ''Opposition members interjecting.''

You had to be there. It wasn't just the opposition benches in belly-laughter; a ripple of mirth also went through the public gallery.

When Swan's government came to office in 2007, the people-smuggling trade had stopped. The cost of border control was about $100 million. The problem had gone away.

The Rudd government then dismantled the deterrence regime with much grandstanding about compassion. The people-smuggling trade resumed. People smugglers began calling the government's bluff. The cost of the intercepting, processing and detaining asylum seekers grew exponentially. The courts became flooded with litigation. Detention centres were opened all around the country. The average time in detention increased to more than six months. The number of asylum seekers who arrived without identity documents rose to almost 100 per cent. The success rate for this tactic rose to 90 per cent. The security screening process was compromised. Hundreds of lives were lost at sea. Riots broke out in detention centres. The refugee stream was pre-empted by thousands of people paying people smugglers, destroying their identity documents, bypassing immigration, and challenging the courts to prove they are liars.

The most disturbing aspect of this comprehensive debacle is the cost. According to the budget papers for the past four years, the annual expenditure on asylum-seeker management was a few million dollars in 2007-08. It exploded to $100 million in 2008-09, then $300 million the following year, then $900 million last year, then to a projected $1.1 billion-plus in this financial year.

The total direct cost over the past three years is about $2.3 billion, a time of about 16,000 boat people arrivals, which equates to $139,000 per asylum seeker processed.

That figure is high enough, but Morrison estimates the real cost is much higher - almost twice as high: $4.7 billion during the past three years. He cites budget figures and estimates which include the full administrative and security costs of running the border security program.

If Morrison is right, and the government has spent $4.7 billion on northern border security in three years, and the bulk of it has gone on intercepting, processing and detaining 18,500 asylum seekers and pre-existing detainees, it works out at about $250,000 per asylum seeker.

''Around nine in every 10 people arriving on illegal boats get what the smuggler promised them, a permanent visa in Australia,'' Morrison said on Saturday. ''The rest get to stay on endlessly, appealing their decision in the courts, while being able to live in the community with welfare or work rights. There is a strong temptation for a desperate government to try to 'tick and flick' their problem away by simply giving applicants the benefit of the doubt, to get them out of the system.''

Even if the government massages Morrison's $4.7 billion down, it will still be a huge figure that enrages voters. Especially as more than 90 per cent of asylum seekers gain entry into the country anyway, which makes the whole exercise of border security a prodigious waste of money. Pink batts replaced by razor wire.

The process has compromised every institution it has touched - the courts, the detention system, the Department of Immigration, the police, the navy, ASIO and, above all, the refugee program.

When Swan made his outrageous comment about the failure of the previous government, the justification he gave to the Parliament was this: ''I can certainly confirm that virtually all those people they [the Howard government] sent to Nauru came to Australia.''

But the boats had stopped coming. The policies had worked. An even better, less costly, less cumbersome response would be to impose a presumption of guilt on anyone who arrives without documents. Politically, it is a winner.

On Saturday, this is exactly what the opposition leader, Tony Abbott, and Scott Morrison proposed in announcing a suite of policies aimed at people smuggling.

They would introduce a presumption of deceit for people who bypass the refugee program and seek entry without documentation. They would reintroduce temporary protection visas. They would appoint an integrity commissioner to assess asylum claims.

It was the third time in a week that Abbott has made policy announcements. The government's attack on him as an agent of negativity has been repeated hundreds of times until it has seeped into focus groups and opinion polls. It is obliging Abbott to bring policies and positives to the debate.

The government's failure over people smugglers, though, is a gift that keeps on giving for Abbott and the opposition. At election time they will be able to drape a very big number - between $140,000 and $250,000 per asylum-seeker - around the neck of the government like a garland of shame. This issue is still a game-breaker.