THE bid for UN recognition tonight could bring Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas new diplomatic weight and tools, but also cost his people hundreds of millions in much-needed cash.
Mr Abbas is assured of triumph at the UN General Assembly when he seeks backing for his bid to go from "observer entity" to "non-member observer state". The US and Israel will be unable to spoil his big day.
The Palestinians have focused on getting support from European nations. France came through yesterday when Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told parliament the country would vote for the resolution. Portugal will also vote yes and Switzerland will probably back the resolution, but Germany is expected to vote no or abstain. Britain's position remains unclear. Julia Gillard said on Tuesday that Australia would abstain.
Victory will not give the Palestinians a vote at the 193-member assembly. But they will be able to join UN agencies and sign treaties for which the UN Secretary-General is the record keeper.
The vote "implies recognition of statehood and it gives them certain privileges" and "a certain prestige", said Vera Jelinek, dean of New York University's Centre for Global Affairs.
The Palestinians will be able to go to UN conferences open to all states and to vote like other states. The Vatican used its observer status to raise sensitive issues at UN conferences on women and population.
The most valuable prize for Mr Abbas could be recourse to the International Criminal Court. The prospect of an ICC prosecutor looking into Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank was one of the Israeli government's major worries, diplomats said.
And it is a threat that Palestinian UN envoy Riyad Mansour dangled yesterday.
If Israeli authorities did not "respect resolutions of the Security Council, continue to illegally build settlements, which is a war crime from the point of view of the ICC and the Rome statute, then we will consult with all of our friends" over how to bring Israel into compliance.
The ICC is not a UN agency, however.
The signatories of the Rome statute which set up the ICC would have to carry out their own vote first to accept the Palestinians, diplomats said.
ICC membership could be "a little trickier", said Ms Jelinek. "I am not sure whether it would accept a ratification from an observer state in the UN."
Mr Abbas wants super-observer status at the UN to boost Palestinian recognition and force Israel back into talks.
The US and Israel could also inflict financial damage on the Palestinians.
US law bans financing for any international body that recognises a Palestinian state. When the Palestinians were voted on to the UN Cultural and Educational Organisation last year, the US administration withdrew more than $US70 million in fundin
