Why Iran Took Another U.S. Hostage

That’s the best explanation for the puzzling failure of Washington to secure the release of Rezaian and the other hostages during the nuclear talks. Iran wanted to hold onto its chips as insurance against the possibility that inconvenient details about its cheating would blow up the deal. At the very least, they’d like to keep things calm before the $100 billion in released frozen assets is handed over to them or the untold fortune that will follow from new business deals after the sanctions are lifted.

As I noted earlier this month, the Obama administration was so desperate for a deal that they were prepared to leave American hostages behind in order to secure one on the terms that Iran demanded. Whatever sympathy the president may have for the prisoners and their families, it was not enough to motivate him to treat the issue as important enough to tell the Iranians they would not get their financial windfall until all Americans were let go. Indeed, nothing — not even Iran’s production of ballistic missiles that could reach the United States or its continued support of international terrorism — was a big enough deal to motivate U.S. negotiators to draw a line in the sand with Islamist regime.

This decision didn’t just lead to a weak nuclear deal that gives Iran two paths to a nuclear weapon — one by cheating on its easily evaded restrictions and the other by waiting patiently for it to expire. It also provided Iran with the leverage to continue to extort concessions from the U.S. as the deal was implemented. Each American prisoner makes Iran that much more confident that nothing it does will tempt Obama to stop the deal. Moreover, the history of the last three years of negotiations with the Americans also makes Iran sure that when push comes to shove, the U.S. will bend to their dictates just as the administration did at every impasse in the nuclear talks.

That means that just like Jason Rezaian, Pastor Saed Abidini, Amir Hekmati, and Robert Levinson, the fate of Namazi is directly linked to the Obama administration’s reputation as a soft touch with respect to Iran. Who knows what new concessions Iran will demand in order to secure their release? The only thing we know for certain is that Iran thinks that, sooner or later, Obama will give them what they want. As much as this oppressive terrorist regime deserves the condemnation of the world for its latest misbehavior, it’s hard to blame them for thinking that Obama will let them get away with it.