Israel update

International Director of The Florence Melton Adult Mini-School

The recent events in Israel, both on the southern and northern borders, have radically changed the situation in the country with an atmosphere of uncertainty in the air.  With the situation in a state of flux it is difficult to make far reaching conclusions and thus these are merely first thoughts on the issues at hand.

Political Background

Both in Gaza and on the Lebanese border Israel is facing similar situations. In both areas the ruling forces are fundamentalist Moslem terrorist organizations. In Gaza it is the Hamas and on the northern border it is the Hezbollah. Both organizations are supported by Iran who provides them with both military and financial support.

On both borders we have similar scenarios that precipitated the crisis; in the south the Hamas dug a tunnel into the Kerem Shalom army base and captured Gilad Shalit and in the north the Hezbollah ambushed an Israeli patrol vehicle on Israel's side of the border, killing three soldiers and kidnapping two.

What do these organizations want?

Tactically both organizations have similar aims. They have both launched rocket attacks on Israeli towns and have both kidnapped soldiers. In addition are both demanding the same price for freeing the kidnapped soldiers, a mass release of terrorists held in Israeli prisons. They want to pressurize Israel into a prisoner settlement with Israel having to pay a heavy price in the process.

Strategically their aims differ. The Hezbollah want to be recognized first and foremost by the Palestinians as the guardians of their rights and ultimate saviors. They believe that the more Palestinian prisoners they can free the higher will be their standing in the Palestinian street.

Hamas, on the other hand, feel that they have popular support and they are striving for international legitimacy. They are desperate for the Israeli government to recognize them as legitimate partners and to negotiate with them. They claim that only they can guarantee peace in the Gaza Strip and they want to negotiate a settlement that will give them the legitimacy they aspire to.

What does Israel want?

Tactically Israel wants to release her kidnapped soldiers at a minimum price and restore peace and quiet both to Gaza and the northern border. Strategically Israel wants to change the “rules of the game” on both fronts. These changes will include the following:

1. The kidnapping of Israel soldiers will not be considered a worthwhile option for the terrorist organizations.
2. In the north the Lebanese army will take control of Lebanon’s southern border in keeping with the UN resolutions and remove the Hezbollah from the area.
3. In Gaza either Hamas will agree to lay down their arms or continue to suffer international alienation.

What are the chances of Israel achieving her tactical aims?

1. In Gaza Israel has far more of an advantage than in the north. In the Gaza Strip Israel has a major intelligence presence and thus has a strong chance of releasing Gilad Shalit using military means. Furthermore, the military ability of Hamas is very limited.
2. In the north the situation is far more complicated. Without the ability to physically release the kidnapped soldiers Israel will have to pay a heavy price for their release as has been the case with previous kidnappings. 

Militarily the Hezbollah is a well armed militia with the ability to strike cities accross the Galilee region and thus Israel is facing a complicated challenge.

What are the chances of Israel achieving her strategic goals?

To achieve these goals this military venture taken by the Israeli Government will require time, determination and popular support. A supportive population that maintains its morale will be strategically important in order to allow the Government and army the stamina and patience to change the rules of the game.

This support and high morale cannot be taken for granted. All soldiers are very much civilians and many civilians have been drafted now into the military. The army patrol unit that was attacked on the northern border comprised reservists (miluimniks) on their last days of service. This unit comprised married men and fathers, many of whom participated in the tragic fighting in Jenin during the Intifada where many of their colleagues were killed.

What are the implications of the conflict for the Israeli population?

Both yesterday and today multiple cities in the north have suffered rocket attacks leaving casualties and damage to property. Last night over 700 000 Israelis who live in the north were asked to reside in shelters and secure rooms. In the Upper Galilee life has almost come to a standstill.  Many families have moved south to spend this summer “vacation” with family and friends while those remaining behind remain in their shelters. 

Economically this conflagration is certain to take its toll. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has dropped 8% over the past two days and it is only due to its being closed on Friday, erev Shabbat, that further drops will be averted. The cities in the north may suffer financial disaster with July and August being the tourist season and the expected massive cancellation of reservations.

What can the Jews in the Diaspora do to help the situation?

The support of Diaspora Jewry will be of strategic importance for Israel in the coming weeks. This support will be crucial to enable Israel to withstand the international political pressures and to indicate to the Israeli population that Israel is not alone.

From a practical point of view the tremendous vote of confidence in Israel reflected by the waves of tourists over the past two years must continue. This barometer of support is crucial as it strengthens the Israelis and of course contributes to the economy.

Finally it is important to reflect on the Hebrew date of this conflagration. Yesterday we commemorated the 17th of Tammuz fast day inaugurating three weeks of mourning for the destruction of the First and Second Temples. According to the Sages the Second Temple was destroyed because of sinat hinam, mutual hatred without any reason. There is no doubt that to stand firm we now require ahavat hinam, unconditional love. This we always require, now we need it more than ever.

This update is issued exclusively to the Directors, Faculty, Founders and Supporters of the Florence Melton Adult Mini-School