Ajit Doval, the former head of India’s Intelligence Bureau, and an equally senior Indonesian who spoke on condition of anonymity, both told The Weekend Australian the world was heading into a heightened phase of terrorism that would be more dangerous than the situation in 2001, which led to the 9/11 attacks.
The Australian has since learnt that the broad assessment is shared by Australia’s main defence and national security agencies.
The Asian intelligence chiefs cited several factors likely to contribute to the rise of a new generation of jihadist terrorists, who will attack the West as well as traditional targets in the Muslim world.
The chief new threat is emerging from the savage sectarian war in Syria, which is attracting jihadists from all over the world.
Syria is much easier for aspiring jihadists to get to than Afghanistan was in the 1980s.
Asian intelligence chiefs also fear foreign fighters are getting much more direct combat experience than similar recruits got in Afghanistan. When they return to their home countries, especially Western nations, a proportion are likely to continue their commitment to violent jihadism. For all the dangers of self-radicalisation on the internet, the universal law enforcement experience is that extremists are far more dangerous when they have received professional terror training in person.
Many of the terrorists who killed Australians in Bali, and others who came back to Australia to engage in terror plots, which were foiled by the authorities, had received training in Afghanistan.
However, even higher up the hierarchy of danger than those who have received military training are those who have had actual combat experience.
Large numbers of such jihadists will be coming back to Western societies from Syria.
Whereas in Afghanistan about 25 Australians received military training, and all those who came back posed a security concern, in Syria at any one time it is believed that 50 Australians are involved in a fighting group, with another 150 or more offering other types of assistance.
Western nations such as the US and Australia have been successful in preventing mass-attack terrorism over the past decade mainly because of the heavy border security measures they take. This focuses especially on checking the bio-data of people seeking to enter through airports.
It is true that the US has a more porous border with Mexico but so far Islamist jihadists have not made significant efforts to get into the US that way.
However, security analysts now believe the terror threats could multiply in ways which strain all security efforts.
It is by no means assured that the Western success in mostly preventing mass terror killings in the past decade will continue.
Not only is Syria attracting, training and blooding large numbers of dedicated jihadists but the conflict shows no sign of ending. Not only that, there is every chance that al-Qa’ida-linked extremists will end up with control, or at least a great deal of influence, in any Syrian territory, which remains long term outside of the central government’s control.
Many analysts also believe the Taliban will end up controlling large slabs of Afghan territory once Western forces pull out and that this will afford a new haven for terrorists.
At the same time, al-Qa’ida-linked groups have made huge recruitment gains, and controlled significant slices of territory, in North Africa and Yemen.
All of this makes the establishment of a substantial number of terrorist havens more likely.
Bruce Hoffman, a terrorist expert at Georgetown University, recently published a paper reporting that al-Qa’ida affiliated groups continue to seek access to nuclear material. However, he outlined the much greater threat that such groups would eventually combine poisonous chemicals with explosives in a way that could inflict mass casualties.
It is also likely that planes will continue to be a key target for terror groups. They are vulnerable at many points, concentrate large numbers of people in one place and have the ability to generate worldwide publicity.
Whatever the truth about the missing Malaysia Airlines jet, the conditions for a resurgence of international terrorism are all there, and the wave looks likely to grow.
