Hamas victory a new Middle East revolution

The electoral victory of the Islamic radical group Hamas underlines the bankruptcy of the Israeli and United States approaches to handling the Palestinian problem. The group′s rise to power may well have as electrifying an effect on radical forces of political Islam across the region as did Ayatollah Khomeini′s Islamisation of the Iranian revolution 26 years ago.

It has the potential to deal a fatal blow to the Bush Administration′s strategy to remould the Middle East in the image of the United States and in support of Israel.

Hamas′ triumph comes as no great surprise. It has been in the making for a long time. It has occurred partly because of the growing incompetence and unpopularity of the secularist Fatah-run Palestinian Authority over the past decade, but largely as a result of the Israeli and American pressure to change the agenda of Palestinian politics to their liking.

This, together with Israel′s intensifying efforts to suppress the Palestinian resistance to its brutal occupation under the pretence of fighting terrorism since September 11, 2001, has been instrumental in more and more Palestinians turning to Hamas.

They have viewed the group as the main force fighting for them against Israel and providing them with basic welfare services that the Palestinian Authority failed to provide.

The more Israel persisted with its policy of settlement expansion and targeted assassination of Hamas leaders and activists, the more it created the conditions for Hamas to widen its popularity.

This has been very much parallel to the way the US-led war on terrorism has helped al-Qaeda to enlarge its circles of popularity and recruitment in the Arab/Muslim world.

The situation for Israel and the US has now come full circle. Israel originally supported Hamas when the group was formed in 1987 to counter what the Jewish state and Washington labelled as the terrorist Palestine Liberation Organisation under Yasser Arafat. However, when they found that Hamas had the potential to Islamise the Palestinian nationalist movement and that the PLO had become weak enough to be vulnerable to Israeli and American dictates after the first Palestinian uprising (1987-1993), they switched sides to support the PLO as the legitimate partner in peace.

Yet they did little to enable the PLO to fulfil its promise of peace, prosperity and independence for the Palestinian people.

The policy actions that they adopted provoked an increasing number of Palestinians to see more salvation with Hamas than the PLO. Under the circumstances, the Israeli and American declaration of Hamas in 2003 as a terrorist organisation similar to al-Qaeda, without any consideration of the fact that Hamas had emerged in the context of the Palestinian resistance to Israel′s continued occupation, was a fatal mistake.

Tragically, for most Palestinians and their Arab and Muslim supporters, if Israel was allowed to do whatever necessary to maintain its occupation, then Hamas had every right to resist that occupation with whatever means at its disposal, including suicide bombing.

Meanwhile, driven by its rhetoric about the spread of democracy and liberty to justify its illegal invasion of Iraq, the Bush Administration′s call for democratisation of Palestinian politics finally provided Hamas with the opportunity to prove its popularity with the voters.

Hamas′ electoral success has now given it the formal popular legitimacy that it has needed to put its stamp on the issue of war and peace with Israel. Although the organisation has claimed its opposition to negotiation with Israel and called for the destruction of the Jewish state, it has also demonstrated some political pragmatism to participate in the election and to avoid renewing its demand for the dismantling of Israel during the campaign. In power, Hamas can be expected to moderate its stand and, under the right circumstances, lean towards negotiation with Israel. But this will also depend on whether Israel and its international supporters, specially Washington, will rescind their denunciation of Hamas as a terrorist organisation.

Ultimately, Israel and the US cannot have their cake and eat it. If they want democracy in the Middle East, they will have to abide by its outcomes. A refusal to recognise Hamas now as a legitimate political force will simply reinforce the widespread impression in the Arab and Muslim world that the US is interested in processes of democratisation only if they can serve its interests.

The Palestinians have met the challenge of the Bush Administration to democratise. Do the US and its allies now have the tenacity and foresight to meet the challenge that the Palestinian voters have thrown back at them? This is a challenge that can easily be duplicated in many other Arab countries if they are led down the path of genuine democratisation.

Hamas′ rise to power has indeed unfolded a political nightmare that Israel and the US cannot afford to mishandle. It is time for sober heads to prevail in Tel Aviv and Washington. Otherwise, they could face more humiliation and insecurity in the Middle East than they have up till now.

Amin Saikal is professor of political science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University.