Troops poised for ground offensive

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have undoubtedly prepared for the eventuality of a ground invasion of the Lebanon. It has called up a considerable proportion of those reserves earmarked for the Northern Command, which covers both the Lebanese and Syrian battlefronts.

While the air offensive is spectacular and highly effective in destroying the civilian infrastructure of Lebanon and targeting important members of Hezbollah's leadership, the only truly effective means of destroying the terrorist group's military capability is with ground troops and occupation of the areas used to fire missiles into Israel.

Only ground troops can be expected to find the hidden arms dumps and command bunkers and seal the borders with Syria to prevent reinforcements and replacement weapons reaching Hezbollah.

It now only awaits the political decision from Jerusalem before the army will try to finish the job started by the air force.

IDF ground operations

The current ground actions have been limited thus far to concentrated artillery barrages and special forces operations used to identify and target Hezbollah defensive positions and to some extent prepare the battlefield for any future ground invasion.

These have not been without considerable risk to the IDF, as without doubt the main Hezbollah combat units are well trained, heavily armed and above all, fanatically motivated to fight.

Assuming that any future invasion of Lebanon will be restricted to destroying the Hezbollah infrastructure in the southern part of the country and the lower Bekaa Valley, then it is likely that no more than four or five armored and mechanized brigades, supported by special forces and additional mobile artillery units, would attempt to quickly push about 30 kilometers to the north and establish defensive positions along the Litani River.

However, this has a number of serious military drawbacks for Israel.
Hezbollah missiles would still have the range to hit deep within Israel.
A considerable percentage of Hezbollah's most valuable assets would still be beyond the new Israeli frontline.

Syria and Iran, via Syria, would still be able to re-supply and even reinforce Hezbollah.
Israel's advanced positions would have a dangerously exposed flank opposite Syria.
It would allow international diplomatic pressure time to halt the Israeli advance along the Litani and make it very difficult for Israel to then push further north, even if the military situation demanded it.

Therefore, a full-scale invasion, deploying a minimum of three full divisions, is also being considered, which would allow the IDF to reach the southern outskirts of Beirut, occupy large parts of the Bekaa Valley and seal the border with Syria.

Full-scale invasion

Despite the economic cost to Israel and the international outcry that it would undoubtedly cause, a full-scale invasion would have some considerable advantages for Israel.

• It would provide Israel with bargaining counters and an opportunity to influence the future makeup of the Lebanese government.
• It would push Hezbollah so far to the north that only its very longest range missiles, fewer in number, would still be able to hit Israel.
• Israel's air defenses would be given more time to track and destroy incoming missiles safely over Lebanon.
• Syria and Iran would find it far more difficult to re-supply Hezbollah.
  Israel's armored units in the Bekaa would then be stationed far beyond the present border and with a potential to swing even further north and therefore behind the main Syrian front line positions between the Golan and the capital, Damascus - thus providing the Syrians with a military threat to which they would have little or no answer in the immediate future.

Combat units

If there is a land invasion, whether limited or more ambitious, it is likely to be led by three of the IDF's most famous elite combat units. These are the GOLANI Mechanized Brigade, which would probably seal off or actually advance into the Bekaa Valley. The BARAK Armored Brigade with the most modern Merkava-3 battle tanks will probably punch its way up the heavily defended coast highway toward the Litani or onward to Beirut.

And finally the 7th Armored Brigade would probably be used to destroy Hezbollah forces between the Lebanese border and the town of Tibnin on the Litani River, but most importantly to support either of the flank units and exploit any opportunities.

Of these three elite units, only the BARAK is part of the Northern Command (PAZAN); the 7th and the GOLANI are part of the Army Commands Rapid Reaction Force. This also includes at least eight other elite armored, airborne and parachute brigades.

Northern Command

The Northern Command when fully mobilized for war would include the following major units:

• 36th Armored Division (three to four armored brigades) - a regular unit.
• 91st Regional Division
• 252nd Reserve Armored Division
• ADOM (Eilat) Reserve Armored Division
• PELED Reserve Armored Division
• YOFFE Reserve Armored Division

These are supported by independent mechanized infantry brigades, additional mobile artillery, combat engineers with bridging equipment and numerous special forces units, including the PAZAN 12 and PAZAN 14 Northern Command Special Combat Teams for operations behind enemy lines and the T'ZASAM Special Reconnaissance Team capable of airborne insertion for visual reconnaissance operations deep within enemy territory.

Northern Command, even without significant reinforcement, would at full strength have about 180,000-200,000 men and women, several thousand battle tanks and about 3,000 armored combat vehicles and self-propelled artillery, multiple rocket and missile launchers.

IDF air operations

The current air offensive against Hezbollah and the infrastructure of Lebanon is being carried out mainly by the following units:

KANAF-1

• 109 Squadron "The Valley Squadron" F-16D Block 30 Barak
• 110 Squadron "Kings of the North" F-16C/D Block 30 Barak
• 117 Squadron "First Jet" F-16C/D Block 30 Barak operating from Ramat David Air Base, southeast of Haifa.

KANAK-4

• 101 Squadron "First Fighter" F-16C/D Block 40 Barak
• 105 Squadron "Ha'Akrav" ("The Scorpions") F-16C/D Block 40 Barak
• 144 Squadron "Guardians of the Arava" F-16A/B Netz operating from Hatzor Air Base, east southeast of Ashdod

KANAF-8

• 106 Squadron "The Point of the Spear" F-15C/D
• 133 Squadron "Knights of the Twin Tail" F-15C/D
• 114 Squadron "Super Frelon" 20 CH-53-2000 (Troop carriers)
• 118 Squadron "Nocturnal Birds of Prey" 20 CH-53-2000 (Troop carriers) operating from Tel Nof Air Base, east of Ashdod on the coast.

KANAF-30

160 Squadron "Northern Cobra" AS-1S III Cobra (anti-tank and ground support)

• 161 Squadron "Southern Cobra" ("First Attack") AS-1S III Cobra (anti-tank and ground support)operating from Palmachim Air Base, south of Tel Aviv.

Support

These units are being supported by other air combat units based in central and southern Israel as and when necessary. In the event that a long-range strike is required on Syrian or even Iranian targets, the strategic long-range aircraft of KANAF-6, 69 Squadron "Ha'patishim" ("Hammers") 25 F-15I based at Hatzerim AB, southern Israel, west of Beersheba, would be called on to support the F15C/D, F16C/D and F16I.

Israel has acquired at least 500 US BLU-109 "bunker buster" bombs and significantly a fleet of B707 in-flight refuelers, giving the IDF an extended reach of more than a 1,000-mile radius.

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